How Taiwan could thwart an invasion by China – with America’s help

In actions that solely fuelled fears that communist-ruled China could also be getting ready to invade its democratically dominated neighbour, the People’s Liberation Army simulated a blockade of the island, sending an plane service and 12 naval ships to encircle it, and flying over 100 warplanes into its air defence identification zone throughout a three-day navy drill.

China’s ruling Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as a part of its territory regardless of by no means having managed it, described the drills as “joint precision strikes” that ought to function a “serious warning against the Taiwan separatist forces.”

The message, in Taipei’s thoughts, appeared clear.

China appeared “to be trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan,” the island’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu advised CNN’s Jim Sciutto.

That blunt evaluation will possible have raised doubts in some quarters over whether or not the island’s navy preparations for such a state of affairs are adequate.

Taipei lately – and really publicly – introduced an extension to obligatory navy service durations from 4 months to a yr and accelerated the event of its indigenous weapons program to spice up its fight readiness.

But analysts say a latest announcement – one which has maybe gone much less remarked upon within the international media – may show a game-changer: talks between Taipei and the United States to determine a “contingency stockpile” of munitions on Taiwan’s soil.

In remarks that weren’t extensively picked up on the time, Defensce Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng advised Taiwan’s parliament in March that Taipei was in discussions with the US over a possible plan to arrange a conflict reserve inventory on the island – a measure made potential by a provision within the 2023 National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA), signed into regulation by US President Joe Biden final December.

And whereas Taiwan has lengthy been a purchaser of weapons from the US, navy specialists say the creation of such a stockpile might be very important to the island’s defence as a result of – as China’s lately simulated blockade confirmed – it might be extremely troublesome to produce the island with extra weapons if conflict does escape.

Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has no land borders so any provides must go in by air or sea – supply strategies that might be extremely susceptible to interceptions by the Chinese navy.

It is subsequently very important for Taiwan to fill up ammunition on the island earlier than any battle begins, mentioned Admiral Lee Hsi-min, who served as Chief of the General Staff for the Taiwanese navy between 2017 and 2019.

“Having a war reserve stockpile is crucial and meaningful for Taiwan,” he mentioned.

“Even if the United States does not want to intervene directly with military force, those kinds of stockpiles can still be very effective for our defence.”

Taiwan has additionally repeatedly raised issues about delays in US weapon deliveries amid the conflict in Ukraine. Following his assembly with Tsai, Speaker McCarthy tweeted: “Based on today’s conversations, it’s clear several actions are necessary: We must continue arms sales to Taiwan and make sure such sales reach Taiwan on time.”

The talks over the potential stockpile beg the query: What precisely does Taiwan want for its defence?

For a long time, the Taiwanese navy has been buying fighter jets and missiles from the United States, which continues to be the one greatest guarantor of the island’s security regardless of not having an “official” diplomatic relationship.

Last month, the Biden administration made headlines with its approval of potential arms gross sales to Taiwan value an estimated $619 million (A$922 million), together with tons of of missiles for its fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

But Admiral Lee mentioned Taiwan urgently wanted to fill up on smaller and extra cell weapons that might have the next likelihood of surviving the primary wave of a Chinese assault in an all-out battle – which might possible embrace long-range joint missile strikes on Taiwanese infrastructure and navy targets.

In a high-profile e book revealed final yr, titled “Overall Defence Concept,” Lee argued that Taiwan ought to shift away from investing closely in fighter jets and destroyers, as its navy property have been already vastly outnumbered by China’s and will simply be paralysed by long-range missiles.

Last yr, China’s defence funds was $230 billion ($342 billion), greater than 13 occasions the dimensions of Taiwan’s spending of $16.89 billion ($23 billion).

So as an alternative of matching ship for ship or airplane for airplane, Lee argued, Taiwan ought to embrace an uneven warfare mannequin targeted on the procurement of smaller weapons – similar to moveable missiles and mines – which can be laborious to detect however efficient in halting enemy advances.

“In Ukraine, their military has used Neptune anti-ship missiles to sink Moscow’s battleships,” he mentioned.

“Asymmetric weapon systems will allow us to maintain our combat capabilities. That is because if our enemies want to destroy them, they will need to get closer to us, which makes them vulnerable to our attack.

“If we will set up ok asymmetrical functionality, I imagine China will not be capable of take over Taiwan by drive, even with out United States’ intervention,” he added.

Though the US maintains close unofficial ties with Taiwan, and is bound by law to sell arms to the island for its self-defence, it remains deliberately vague on whether it would intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion, a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”

Under this year’s National Defence Authorisation Act, passed by the US Congress and signed by US President Joe Biden, Taiwan will be eligible to receive up to $1 billion in weapons and munitions from the United States to counter China’s growing military threat.

The act also allows for the creation of a regional contingency stockpile, which would enable the Pentagon to store weapons in Taiwan for use if a military conflict with China arises.

In a response to CNN for this article, a spokesman at Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence confirmed it is in discussions with the United States on the definition of a “contingency”, the types of munition that can be operated immediately by its armed forces, and the timeline for shipping the items.

The ministry added that the move is aimed only at meeting Taiwan’s defensive needs, as opposed to “pre-stocking” munitions on the island.

The US Indo-Pacific Command declined to provide details about the progress of talks on creating the stockpile but said it would continue to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defence capability.

Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry told CNN that it “resolutely opposes” any military exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, adding that Beijing will take “all essential measures” to defend its sovereignty and security interests.

Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor from Tamkang University who specialises in military affairs, said that if a contingency stockpile were to be created, it should focus on amassing munitions already in use by Taiwan’s military to ensure operational effectiveness.

“I feel a number of the weapons that the US may be keen to offer embrace the Stinger and the Patriot missiles,” he said.

The Stinger is a surface-to-air missile that can be fired by a single soldier, while the Patriot missile defence system is capable of intercepting enemy missiles and aircraft.

Admiral Lee said another weapon that could be stockpiled was the Javelin, a US-made portable anti-tank weapon system that has been widely used by the Ukrainian military to target Russian tanks.

The National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, could also be useful for targeting Chinese warplanes, he said, as it was capable of firing the medium-range AIM-120 missile from ground level.

Other weapons that should be considered included the loitering munition drone – a so-called “suicide drone” that can be carried by a single soldier and is capable of destroying high-value targets – as well as other anti-armour and anti-ship weaponry, he added.

“If you might have a excessive sufficient variety of these sorts of asymmetrical weapon programs that survive the preliminary assault, you may preserve most of your combating capabilities intact and cease the enemy from conducting a touchdown operation,” Lee said.

Another question that arises is how many weapons or missiles Taiwan would need to defend itself against China.

Experts said providing a concrete number was difficult because the possible combat scenarios were so varied.

In his book, Admiral Lee wrote that the Chinese military could resort to different options in attempting to bring Taiwan under its control.

In an all-out war, China could fire long-range missiles to destroy Taiwanese infrastructure and military targets before attempting to send its ground troops across the Taiwan Strait.

Other scenarios with limited military action could include an aerial and naval blockade around Taiwan, or the seizure of Taiwan’s small outlying islands that are close to the Chinese coast.

However, Lin suggested the number of missiles that Taiwan likely needs would be in the “tens of 1000’s.”

He said one relatively simple way of calculating the number of missiles required involves estimating the total number of offensive military assets owned by the enemy, and the effectiveness of Taiwan’s defensive weapons.

“For instance, if our enemy has 1,000 missiles and we’ve successful price of 25 per cent, then we’ll want about 4,000 anti-ballistic missiles.”

In addition to weapons, Taiwan’s military could benefit from mobile radar systems that would enable it to receive military signals from the US, Lin added.

These would be useful in conducting electronic warfare, as the US military would be able to help identify potential enemy targets even if ground radar systems had been destroyed.

“Even although the United States doesn’t have troops on the bottom in Ukraine, it has been capable of inform the Ukrainian navy the place to fireside their weapons by sending alerts from its digital warfare plane,” Lin said.

“We want to verify we’ve the mandatory tools to hyperlink with US navy programs at occasions of conflict.”

There were other reasons the discussions with the US over the possible stockpile were important, Admiral Lee said, and they went beyond issues of storing up ammunition and spare parts.

“(Having a contingency stockpile) could be very essential, as a result of it sends a sign to China that the United States is decided to help in our defence,” he said.