'Beginning of the end': Putin gambling on new offensive to save hold on power

An anticipated spring Russian offensive in Ukraine might come as early because the one-year anniversary of the warfare later this month – however will it’s sufficient to save lots of Vladimir Putin’s maintain on energy within the Kremlin?

Putin has served repeatedly as Russian president or prime minister since 1999.

The Kremlin chief gambled on his “special military operation” launched on February 24, 2022, to strengthen his self-proclaimed position as an indispensable nationwide determine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is anticipated to order a brand new main offensive in Ukraine in coming months. (AP)

But as an alternative the warfare has was a bloody quagmire for the Russian military and Putin that one knowledgeable believes has despatched his iron rule right into a demise spiral.

Associate Professor Matthew Sussex from Australian National University stated the warfare proved a large misjudgment by Putin.

“There is no doubt the war is the beginning of the end for Putin after the failures of this war,” he instructed 9news.com.au.

Despite holding main numerical benefits in manpower and weaponry early final 12 months, the Russian navy failed in its instant goals to grab Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and topple the federal government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Then after months of stalemate, Ukraine – equipped with superior western weaponry – seized the initiative by launching a sequence of profitable counteroffensives.

But regardless of his navy’s mauling and the Russian economic system buckling below western sanctions, Sussex stated Putin stays dedicated to persevering with the unpopular warfare.

“Putin has made up his mind that the war goes on … there are strong signs the Russian army could be mustering a force of 300,000 men for a spring offensive.”

Ukrainian navy officers have stated the offensive may start as early as February 24, the one 12 months anniversary of the Russian invasion.

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Sussex stated a protracted attritional warfare is without doubt one of the few choices providing Putin any hope of staving off defeat.

“Putin is banking on a long war wearing down the Ukraine economy to a point of collapse … and western support waning in the next months,” Sussex stated.

Meaningful peace talks seem unlikely as Putin’s fame can be severely diminished at dwelling if he returned from a expensive warfare with out significant territorial positive factors.

But even any modest success in a brand new offensive might be too late to save lots of Putin’s management in the long run, Sussex stated.

Germany has agreed to produce Ukraine with highly effective Leopard 2 tanks. (AP)

The chaotic efficiency of the Russian armed forces, blame-shifting between generals, and Putin’s extremely unpopular transfer to order a navy mobilisation over the previous 12 months have been seismic blows to his standing.

They imply Putin will wrestle to insulate himself from the failures of the warfare and his transfer to shift the blame to subordinates within the navy, intelligence companies and the Russian inhabitants may backfire.

“The result has been chaotic spaces where dissent can spread,” Sussex stated.

“And that could mean the targets of his blame game will say: ‘We’re sick of this guy, let’s get rid of him.'”