First qualifying closing, MCG, Thursday 7.20pm
First qualifying closing, MCG, Thursday 7.20pm
LAST TIME RD 13: Melbourne 8.18 (66) def Collingwood 9.8 (62), MCG
WHAT TO WATCH
MAGPIES
BACKLINE RESET
Collingwood’s defence regarded chaotic and disorganised throughout its late season lean patch, however the return of a completely match captain Darcy Moore together with Nathan Murphy ought to enable the defensive unit to settle in opposition to Melbourne.
Billy Frampton seems set to slip out of the again six, however will he earn a reprieve on the expense of Murphy or Jeremy Howe if Melbourne turns to Brodie Grundy?
SQUEEZE ON SMALLS
Jack Ginnivan’s excellent show in opposition to Essendon may need cemented a beginning spot in opposition to the Dees, however Beau McCreery getting back from suspension will create a troublesome choice for Craig McRae on who to drop to the sub position.
McCreery, Ginnivan and Bobby Hill have solely began in the identical aspect on six events this season, and leaving out the skilled Will Hoskin-Elliott to accommodate all three in a closing can be a daring name.
MIDFIELD SPEED
McRae conceded the Pies midfield regarded sluggish at instances in August, however their highly effective overlap operating on the wings and thru the hall was again on show in opposition to the Bombers as Jordan De Goey and Jack Crisp recurrently exploded out of contests.
The midfield will should be equally dynamic to fight Melbourne’s hard-nosed on-ball brigade.
DEMONS
FORK IN THE ROAD
Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin’s choice on whether or not to again veteran ahead Tom McDonald or ruckman Brodie Grundy to fill Jake Melksham’s spot will form the Demons’ finals marketing campaign.
McDonald is stronger on the lead and a better match to Melksham, who whereas smaller was a extremely efficient goal and straightened out Melbourne’s attacking ball motion within the second half of the season.
But Grundy is likely one of the competitors’s finest ruckman, and skipper Max Gawn has a five-goal haul in a preliminary closing to his identify – may Goodwin be tempted to revisit his failed experiment?
CLARRY IS PRIMED
Melbourne’s midfield ought to go to a different degree in finals, with Clayton Oliver set for an enormous efficiency in his fourth recreation again and with the advantage of per week off.
Jack Viney has had a career-best 12 months and the Demons have been in a position to cut back their reliance on Oliver and Petracca within the second half of the season; now, they will unleash each directly in opposition to the Pies.
WING BATTLE
Josh Daicos’ outdoors run has been important for the Magpies, significantly with out his brother Nick on the park, however seasoned wing duo Ed Langdon and Lachie Hunter obtained a blueprint on how you can deal with the All-Australian when the Lions beat the Pies in spherical 23.
Callum Ah Chee was a handful for Daicos as he ran aggressively and roved ahead half contests for 2 first-half objectives, and Langdon particularly has the cardio energy to maintain the Magpies star preoccupied with defending his man on Thursday night time.
CASUALTY LIST
MAGPIES
Nick Daicos (knee) 1-2 weeks
DEMONS
Jake Melksham (knee) season
Harrison Petty (foot) season
PREDICTION
The return of a completely match Darcy Moore will make an enormous distinction to the Magpies’ defensive system and trigger complications for a Melbourne aspect which has made scoring look troublesome at instances this season. Collingwood by 13 factors.
TAB ODDS
Match: Collingwood $1.85, Melbourne $1.95
Flag: Collingwood $3.50, Melbourne $4.00
CARLTON v SYDNEY
First elimination closing, MCG, Friday 7.50pm
LAST TIME RD 11: Sydney 11.11 (77) def Carlton 6.15 (51), SCG
WHAT TO WATCH
BLUES
LONG WAIT OVER
After 180 video games and 10 residence and away seasons, Blues skipper Patrick Cripps will play in his first closing.
The highly effective on-baller was constructed for September soccer and will probably be decided to guide the cost in opposition to the Swans’ midfield, which has at instances been bullied by larger our bodies this season.
After a well-earned relaxation in opposition to the Giants, Cripps ought to be recent and again to full pressure.
TWIN TOWERS
Charlie Curnow is in profession finest kind, however what is going to it imply for the Blues’ finals opponents if Harry McKay involves the get together in September?
Since getting back from damage in spherical 23, the Blues’ different Coleman medallist solely has 1.1 to his identify, however has pushed excessive up the bottom to provide Curnow room.
Sydney has been reluctant to choose an additional tall in defence to assist Tom McCartin and Dane Rampe, and in the event that they follow the identical construction McKay and Curnow might be an enormous twin menace near aim.
BIG BLUE WALL
Pockets of Carlton supporters had been up in arms about Jacob Weitering’s All-Australian omission, however the important thing defender struggled alongside together with his aspect earlier than the bye.
In chic kind and up in opposition to inexperienced Swans key forwards, Weitering has a chance to rule the skies on Friday and cement his standing as the very best full-back within the recreation.
SWANS
LIZARD ON LOOSE
The driving pressure behind the Swans’ 26-point win over a determined Carlton in May was a profession finest efficiency by Nick Blakey, who racked up 21 kicks and 10 intercepts in a scintillating show off halfback.
The left-footer’s means to learn the play after which rebound at unpredictable angles will probably be essential for the Swans to disrupt the rhythm Carlton has performed over the past two months.
MIDS MUST LIFT
Before the Swans went on their six-game successful streak to lock up a finals spot, their hot-and-cold kind was largely depending on the midfield group, who’ve generally regarded weak in opposition to extra bodily imposing on-ball brigades.
If Mills, Parker and Rowbottom can get first fingers on the ball in opposition to the larger Cripps and Hewett, the Blues’ midfielders won’t take pleasure in chasing Errol Gulden and Chad Warner out of stoppages.
GAME MANAGEMENT
Sydney solely received eight closing quarters this season, the worst file of any finals staff.
A poor final quarter in opposition to Adelaide virtually ruined the Swans’ season, whereas they coughed up six unanswered objectives to the Demons in spherical 24.
The Swans begin video games extra strongly than Carlton, with 13 first quarter wins in comparison with 10, however will should be ruthless if given the possibility to bury the Blues, who’re armed with as a lot ahead firepower as any finalist.
CASUALTY LIST
BLUES
Blake Acres (collarbone) check
Matt Kennedy (knee) check
Jack Silvagni (knee) 1-2 weeks
Zac Williams (knee) season
SWANS
Justin McInerney (calf) check
Sam Reid (hamstring) season
Angus Sheldrick (ankle) season
PREDICTION
Sydney was fortunate to scrape into the highest eight after the aim overview blunder went in opposition to the Crows, and whereas Carlton’s season has additionally been a rollercoaster journey, the Blues’ present model of footy stacks up properly in opposition to the Swans. Carlton by 24 factors.
TAB ODDS
Match: Carlton $1.50, Sydney $2.60
Flag: Carlton $11, Sydney $51
ST KILDA v GWS GIANTS
Second elimination closing, MCG, Saturday 3.20pm
LAST TIME RD 10: GWS 12.8 (80) misplaced to St Kilda 13.14 (92), Giants Stadium
WHAT TO WATCH
SAINTS
BABY SAINTS
In solely their second seasons, Mitch Owens, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Marcus Windhager have turn out to be three of Ross Lyon’s most essential foot troopers and can tackle a variety of duty of their first closing.
With Max King set to return rather than Jack Hayes, Owens is once more prone to shoulder the back-up ruck duties for Rowan Marshall, and will probably be an essential aerial menace in assault because the Saints attempt to stretch the Giants’ stellar key defensive trio of Taylor, Himmelberg and Buckley.
CAPTAIN’S DUTY
A brutal collarbone break has affected Jack Steele’s kind this season however the Saints skipper has typically sacrificed his personal recreation for the staff with an task on an opposition ball-winner.
Tom Green looms because the head-to-head opponent for Steele on Saturday, and if the powerful captain can neutralise the Giants star, his in-form midfield companion Brad Crouch can get to work.
TOBY TEST
All-Australian full-back Callum Wilkie may be the person to tackle the ceremonial aspect’s captain, Toby Greene, who’s the ace within the Giants’ pack with 60 objectives this season.
Wilkie has carried out the job on Greene earlier than, holding him to 1 aim throughout a 2022 encounter, however the particular task would require the Saints’ different talls to maintain a lid on Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi.
Greene kicked two objectives and arrange 4 extra within the Giants’ spherical 10 win over the Saints.
GIANTS
GOOD TRAVELLERS
Adam Kingsley’s reborn Giants have received in Hobart, Geelong, Norwood, Canberra, Alice Springs and on the Adelaide Oval, however the MCG isn’t one of many equal league file 10 venues the place they’ve claimed 4 factors this season.
Whatever the Giants are doing to arrange for his or her street journeys, confidence of their routine will probably be sky-high as they play solely their second recreation on the ‘G in 2023.
With the Giants’ file on the street, it’s apparent who Brisbane or Port Adelaide would fairly host within the semi-final.
GREEN(E) MACHINE
It hasbecome extra widespread to see Toby Greene venturing into centre bounces within the second half of the season, and the captain is able to forming a scary double act with inside bull and almost-namesake Tom Green.
The transfer permits stylish ball-user Josh Kelly to spend extra time on a wing, and it’ll check how deep St Kilda can bat throughout the center of the bottom, however Toby Bedford’s pending one-week suspension may see these plans put apart for Saturday.
BRIGGS v BULL
Kieren Briggs hasn’t regarded again since claiming the No.1 ruck position in spherical 10, score elite amongst his friends for clearances (6.4) and above common for hit-outs to benefit (8.7).
How he fares in opposition to All-Australian squad member Rowan Marshall, who performs similarly however takes extra marks across the floor, may form proceedings.
CASUALTY LIST
SAINTS
Dougal Howard (wrist) check
Seb Ross (hamstring) check
Zak Jones (knee) TBC
Dan McKenzie (calf) TBC
GIANTS
Finn Callaghan (Achilles) check
Sam Taylor (hamstring) check
Toby Bedford (suspension) 1 week
PREDICTION
Back underneath Ross Lyon, St Kilda enters the finals as the very best defensive aspect within the competitors, however the Giants have extra expertise on each line and are enjoying with full belief of their system. GWS by 29 factors.
TAB ODDS
Match: St Kilda $2.00, GWS $1.80
Flag: St Kilda $41, GWS $21
BRISBANE LIONS v PORT ADELAIDE
Second qualifying closing, Gabba, Saturday 7.25pm
LAST TIME RD 1: Port Adelaide 18.18 (126) def Brisbane 11.6 (72), Adelaide Oval
WHAT TO WATCH
LIONS
MAKING IT COUNT
The Lions have spent too lengthy across the higher echelons of the ladder in current seasons with out totally maximising their alternatives. A straight-sets exit in 2021, after ending fourth, impressed a push to the preliminary closing from sixth on the ladder in 2022.
But after luring midfield star Andrew Dunkley north and with the house closing benefit earned by 17 common season wins and second spot on the ladder, now could be the time for Chris Fagan’s males to place their true stamp on the competitors.
A press release might be made within the first closing which might arrange a house preliminary closing and their finest probability of lastly getting again to the massive dance.
SCORING POWER
The Lions are the one staff within the AFL who had two gamers kick over 50 objectives for the season together with All-Australian Charlie Cameron’s 53 and 51 from Joe Daniher.
Finals are not often shoot-outs however the capability to interrupt free and rating, and Brisbane’s common factors haul in 2023 was practically 95 factors a recreation, may show a telling issue in opposition to Port who didn’t have any single participant kick greater than 38 objectives for the season.
HARRIS TIME
There loads of unfortunate omissions from the All-Australian staff named throughout the week and stalwart Lions defender Harris Andrew may simply depend himself amongst them.
He is the linchpin down again for the Lions and will discover himself having a neater finals match-up than anticipated ought to Port large Charlie Dixon fail to beat his foot situation.
Midfield gun Lachie Neale would even be steaming after being left-out and if successful a closing wasn’t motivation sufficient to carry out, that little sting ought to assist.
POWER
WINNING FORM IS GOOD FORM
The 13-match successful streak Port went on from Rounds 4 to 17, a streak which helped coach Ken Hinkley hold his job for the foreseeable future, confirmed his staff’s capability to play electrical soccer.
But it was the ultimate three wins of the season, in opposition to robust opposition pushing for their very own finals spot, having dropped 4 video games in a row with questions being requested, which may show extra telling.
No-one need to peak in July and whereas Port had been up and about then, they’ve re-found their mojo for the August and September push which is when successful actually counts.
SHINING STAR
So typically linked as a tag-team duo with fellow younger gun Conor Rozee, Port’s self-confessed soccer nut Zak Butters emerged in 2023 because the standout participant of the subsequent technology of real AFL jets.
His All-Australian choice was good, however successful the AFL Coaches‘ Association champion-player award was recognition from the game’s closest watchers of 22-year-old’s dominance in a staff plagued by top-tier expertise, snaring essentially the most brave participant award too, testomony to his want.
Butters additionally confirmed his finest was prepared now, together with his efforts within the closing two rounds of the season indicative of a thirst for big-time performances and there’s no extra essential stage than the finals.
NEVER TEAR US APART
There will probably be no swaying and scarf holding to the INXS traditional which stirs the group at Port residence video games for this Gabba conflict, however there’s a way the spirit inside the Power is their x-factor for this 12 months’s finals collection.
Emotion is at all times on present from the gamers, in the direction of their coach Hinkley who they backed to the hilt when he was underneath the pump, and their on-field power flows from that.
Finals demand extra bodily, and emotionally, than common season video games, and when it’s all on the road, Port has proven a capability to stir and the Lions are on discover.
CASUALTY LIST
LIONS
Lincoln McCarthy (calf) check
Daniel Rich (hamstring) check
Jack Gunston (knee) 2-3 weeks
Will Ashcroft (knee) season
POWER
Charlie Dixon (foot) check
Trent McKenzie (knee) check
Scott Lycett (knee) check
Mitch Georgiades (knee) season
PREDICTION
With zero, yep that’s zero losses on the Gabba this season, and only one single determine margin in 11 video games it might be a courageous particular person to recommend something apart from the Lions progressing straight to the preliminary closing. Lions by 27 factors.
TAB ODDS
Match: Brisbane $1.45, Port Adelaide $2.75
Flag: Brisbane $3.80, Port Adelaide $7
Originally revealed as AFL Finals 2023: In-depth have a look at the 4 video games within the first week
Source: www.dailytelegraph.com.au
