Pies or Bombers? ANZAC Day Collingwood v Essendon betting preview

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES: $1.48 (through Betr)

ESSENDON BOMBERS: $2.70 (through TopSport)

MCG, Tuesday, 3.20pm

Full CODE Bet Match Centre right here

WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT

• Both 4-1, it’s the primary time Collingwood and Essendon have performed an ANZAC Day recreation with each groups within the high 4 since 2000.
• Collingwood have gained 9 of the previous 12 ANZAC Day video games.
• The Pies have gained 13 of their final 14 on the ‘G.

THE MATCH-UP

Collingwood. Essendon. The MCG. ANZAC Day.

There’s nothing larger than this within the AFL dwelling and away season.

It’s the marquee recreation for the AFL and each golf equipment, however this yr it’s given slightly additional spice: it’s the primary time since 2000 that each groups have been high 4 on the ladder when enjoying on ANZAC Day.

Not that ladder place issues a lot between such storied rivals.

Collingwood gained the ANZAC Day recreation final yr by 11 factors because of a giant ultimate time period.

Then in Round 19 final yr it took a Jamie ‘Billy’ Elliott aim after the siren for the then 4th-placed Pies to get previous the lowly 14th-on-the-ladder Bombers.

The Pies, nonetheless, have owned the Bombers on ANZAC Day, developing trumps in 9 of the previous 12 matches.

Three of the previous 4 video games between the 2 storied golf equipment have additionally gone over the whole factors over, however this yr guarantees one thing particular.

These are two of the extra thrilling offences within the recreation: Essendon is at the moment fourth within the AFL for factors per recreation, averaging 99.6 an outing, whereas Collingwood are seventh with 95.2.

The Pies have additionally hit the over in three of their 5 video games this season, and the Bombers have seen 4 of the 5 contests additionally go over and each rank within the high 4 for possessions per recreation.

Expect a wildly entertaining affair on the ‘G on Tuesday.

HOT PIES

Collingwood have been the excitement machine of the AFL through five rounds and winning plaudits from footy fans across the spectrum, despite, y’know… being Collingwood.

Even with a scarcity of tall timber the Pies have nonetheless been capable of dictate video games as a consequence of their unimaginable midfield.

Ageless surprise Scott Pendlebury, Jordan de Goey and second-year phenom Nick Daicos leaping into Brownlow favouritism and their free-flowing, high-scoring footy-lanche strategy being irresistible.

Daicos has been the apparent standout, averaging a patently ridiculous 36 disposals per recreation to this point, with final week’s 42 touches the most recent masterclass from the Son of the Macedonian Marvel.

He had 23 touches on this recreation final season, whereas this yr he hasn’t had a recreation with fewer than 32 disposals. On the common season’s largest stage, search for him to carry once more and it wouldn‘t be a surprise if he was named the ANZAC Medallist.

His brother Josh, meanwhile, gets overlooked despite having an amazing start to 2023 himself, averaging 25.8 touches a game so far.

With Tom Mitchell making his ANZAC Day debut, look for the prolific ball-winner to get his hands on plenty of the pill as well. He’s solely gone for 30 as soon as this season, however on the ‘G Mitchell goes full pig and averages 32+.

The hero of the Round 19 clash, Jamie Elliott, doesn’t thoughts the MCG and likes being favourited much more. In eight straight on the ‘G where the Pies are favourites, he’s booted 2+ majors. He loves the massive moments and the Pies will want him to step up alongside Brody Mihocek and Ash Johnson.

BOMBS AWAY

The Bombers have been one of many AFL season’s finest tales: new coach Brad Scott has turned the crew round and has them at the moment sitting within the high six of each offence and defence (they’re third for factors towards).

The crew forces turnovers and scores at a terrific charge when it will get inside its personal 50, with the tall timber of Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips inflicting havoc. With Collingwood missing for bigs, Draper ought to get free once more.

But it’s the midfield engine room of Darcy Parish and Dylan Shiel which were getting a healthy dose of leather-based poisoning from all of the tablet they’ve been gathering.

Parish has gone for 30+ touches in all 5 video games to start out the season, whereas Shiel is averaging 25.6 disposals a recreation to this point and has profession numbers of over 26 towards the Pies.

But it wouldn’t be a Bombers recreation with out some Jake Stringer magic.

Stringer averages a neat two majors in ANZAC Day clashes towards the Pies – booting two in 2018, two in 2019, three in 2020, one in 2021 and three final yr – and has 6 targets to this point this season in three video games for a mean of, you guessed it, two a recreation.

Look for him to mild up the Bomber devoted on the ‘G.

BEST FIRST GOAL SCORER BET

First goal kicker on ANZAC Day: what an honour.

The past three have all been Magpies – Jack Ginnivan, Darcy Cameron and Brody Mihocek – with now Lion Joe Daniher the first goalkicker in both 2017 and ‘18 while with Essendon.

Ginnivan has form for the Pies – going for the first goal three times in the past two seasons – and it would be a huge moment for him to go back-to-back as the first major scorer. If only for the reaction of the Bombers fans.

Since 2021 Stringer ($10 w/ Betr) has also gone big early, booting the first goal of the match on eight occasions.

THE PICK

Despite the two teams having the same record and the Bombers getting past Melbourne at Gather Round in Adelaide last week, the Pies have looked marginally better to start the season and have played a tougher schedule.

But considering how tough Essendon have played under Brad Scott and the major scalp they took last week, expect them to keep it close, even if the Pies win.

AN ANZAC DAY FOR THE AGES SGM

• Nick Daicos – 30+ disposals

Daicos the Younger has 32+ in five straight this year: his Brownlow candidacy will tick up a notch with a massive ANZAC Day showing.

• Darcy Parish – 30+ disposals

The Preacher has also gone for 30+ in every game to start the season.

• Scott Pendlebury – 20+ disposals

Pendles loves the big stage and getting pill against the Bombers: he’s gone for 20+ disposals in a ridiculous 24 of the previous 25 video games he’s performed Essendon.

Billy has slotted 2+ in eight straight on the ‘G when the Pies are the favourite.

• Nic Martin – anytime goalscorer

Martin has booted at least a goal in four straight.

Big Jakey Stringer loves Anzac Day and averages two goals on the biggest home and away stage.

SIX-LEG AN ANZAC DAY FOR THE AGES SGM @ $18.26 (via Ladbrokes) 

[all odds as of April 23]

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Originally printed as Pies or Bombers? Collingwood v Essendon AFL ANZAC Day 2023 betting preview, finest bets for Tuesday April 25