The end line is nearby.
With two rounds left within the 2023 season, the ladder predictor has gone into overdrive, with simply 18 video games to determine those that stay within the race for premiership glory.
Whether it’s making an attempt to lock up a high 4 spot, or simply making an attempt to get into September, The Run Home reveals what the 13 remaining contenders want over the following fortnight.
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PREDICTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Melbourne on the MCG
First Elimination Final (fifth hosts eighth): Carlton vs Adelaide Crows on the MCG
Second Elimination Final (sixth hosts seventh): Geelong vs Sydney Swans on the MCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts third): Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (19-4)
2. Port Adelaide (17-6)
3. Brisbane Lions (16-7)
4. Melbourne (15-8)
5. Carlton (14-8-1)
6. Geelong (12-10-1)
7. Sydney Swans (12-10-1)
8. Adelaide Crows (12-11)
9. Western Bulldogs (12-11)
10. St Kilda (12-11)
11. GWS Giants (12-11)
12. Essendon (11-12)
13. Richmond (10-12-1)
14. Gold Coast Suns (10-13)
15. Fremantle (9-14)
16. Hawthorn (8-15)
17. North Melbourne (2-21)
18. West Coast Eagles (2-21)
KEY TALKING POINTS
– Collingwood is successfully locked into the highest two, and can end 1st with another win (or another Lions loss);
– Brisbane is within the field seat for the opposite residence qualifying last however in all probability nonetheless must beat the Magpies subsequent week, with Port Adelaide hoping to carry serve and sneak again into second, whereas Melbourne is now the outsider (and faces a really tough last spherical in Sydney);
– Carlton isn’t 100% locked into the finals but it surely’d be very onerous for them to overlook from right here, and so they might even sneak into the highest 4 if the Hawks upset the Dees subsequent week;
– There are nonetheless roughly seventy bajillion prospects for the previous few spots within the high eight, but when issues go as we’re predicting, there shall be half a sport separating sixth from eleventh, and proportion breaking a four-way tie for eighth;
– If any of St Kilda, the Bulldogs, GWS or Essendon get to 13 wins, they may play finals. If none can, proportion ought to determine which one or two of them make it; which is why Adelaide nonetheless has an actual shot of sneaking in. The Crows should beat Sydney subsequent week first;
– Just just like the Blues, Sydney and Geelong are likely-but-not-certain to play finals in the event that they attain 12 and a half wins. For the Swans meaning beating both Adelaide away or Melbourne at residence; for the Cats meaning beating each the Saints and Bulldogs.
– Richmond is mainly completed and Gold Coast is formally completed;
– Our present situation would contain Geelong and Sydney profitable their spots within the eight due to Round 24 wins, and GWS lacking out due to a loss to Carlton within the final sport of the season. So yeah, that weekend is gonna be loopy.
Below, all 18 golf equipment are listed and analysed within the present ladder order.
1. COLLINGWOOD (17-4, 126.7%)
To play: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, Essendon on the MCG
To lock up minor premiership: Win as soon as OR Brisbane loses as soon as
Best case: Finish 1st (see above situation)
Worst case: Finish 2nd by dropping twice AND Brisbane wins in Round 24
Analysis: As rapidly because the Magpies’ spot on the high appeared slightly shaky, it bought sured up, with Craig McRae’s males now needing only one extra win to complete on high of the ladder. They’re not mathematically locked into the highest two, however Melbourne can’t catch them, and except Port Adelaide wins their final two video games by 100 factors and the Magpies lose their final two by 100 factors, the Power can’t catch them both. A loss to the Lions subsequent week would add a slight little bit of drama to Round 24, as a result of in any other case the Essendon sport shall be completely irrelevant for the Magpies; they’d be capable of relaxation gamers as wanted. (Though they wouldn’t need to let the Bombers win their manner into the eight, in fact…)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, end 1st at 19-4, host Melbourne in a qualifying last
2. BRISBANE LIONS (15-6, 123.2%)
To play: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium, St Kilda on the Gabba
To lock up high two: Go 2-0 OR match Port Adelaide and Melbourne’s outcomes
To lock up high 4: Locked
Best case: Finish 2nd by going 2-0 OR match Port Adelaide and Melbourne’s outcomes
Worst case: Finish 4th by going 1-1 whereas Port Adelaide and Melbourne go 2-0, OR by going 0-2 whereas Port Adelaide and Melbourne win at the very least as soon as
Analysis: They’re formally locked into the highest 4, and Caleb Marchbank’s hand has given the Lions an enormous probability at a house qualifying last, as they now management their future within the race for second place. Win out and so they’ll host both the Demons or Power on the Gabba; however lose to Collingwood subsequent week and the race resets to the place we had been a couple of weeks in the past. They’d then want one other Port Adelaide slip-up and to edge again forward of Melbourne, both on proportion or by way of a victory. Still a variety of outcomes on supply right here, and it makes the Magpies sport completely large.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, end third at 16-7, away to Port Adelaide in a qualifying last
3. PORT ADELAIDE (15-6, 111%)
To play: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Richmond at Adelaide Oval
To lock up high two: Go 2-0 AND Brisbane loses as soon as OR go 1-1 AND Brisbane goes 0-2 AND Melbourne loses as soon as
To lock up high 4: Locked
Best case: Finish 2nd (see above situation)
Worst case: Finish 4th by dropping as soon as AND Melbourne goes 2-0 AND Brisbane wins as soon as, OR dropping twice AND Melbourne goes 1-1
Analysis: Remember when every thing was going terribly for Port Adelaide, roughly… every week in the past? They’re immediately again in a robust place to host a qualifying last. If they simply win their remaining video games, and Brisbane loses to Collingwood subsequent week as could be anticipated, they’ll be internet hosting both the Lions or Demons with a house prelim on the road. Their comparatively poor proportion nonetheless means they will’t afford a mistake in the event that they don’t need to be travelling in week one, although.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, end 2nd at 17-6, host Brisbane in a qualifying last
4. MELBOURNE (14-7, 124%)
To play: Hawthorn on the MCG, Sydney Swans on the SCG
To lock up high two: Go 2-0 AND Port Adelaide and Brisbane lose at the very least as soon as (should keep forward of Brisbane on proportion)
To lock up high 4: Win as soon as
Best case: Finish 2nd by going 2-0 AND Port Adelaide and Brisbane misplaced at the very least as soon as (should keep forward of Brisbane on proportion)
Worst case: Finish fifth by going 0-2 AND Carlton goes 2-0
Analysis: That thrilling loss to the Blues has remarkably stored the door open for one final change to the highest 4, with the Demons nonetheless needing another win to make sure Carlton can’t pinch their double probability. You’d suppose they’d get that towards Hawthorn subsequent week, however you by no means know with this Hawks facet. Simon Goodwin’s males are additionally a step behind within the race for a house qualifying last, needing assist from above – that’s the Lions and Power dropping once more, however He might in all probability assist too. With Brisbane going through Collingwood subsequent week there are nonetheless a variety of outcomes on supply; if the Lions lose, a Round 24 proportion battle looms, which might then determine second, third or fourth. And so we’re again asking the query of whether or not they’d favor an ‘away’ MCG qualifying last towards Collingwood, or a correct away one in Adelaide or Brisbane…
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, end 4th at 15-8, face Collingwood in a qualifying last
5. CARLTON (12-8-1, 116.8%)
To play: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium, GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium
Easiest path to high eight: Win as soon as
Best case: Finish 4th by going 2-0 AND Melbourne goes 0-2
Worst case: Miss finals by going 0-2, whereas 4 of the Saints/Swans/Bulldogs/Giants/Bombers/Cats attain 12.5+ wins with a adequate proportion
Analysis: They’re not undoubtedly taking part in finals… it’s simply very seemingly. After a heartstopping, and maybe lucky, win over Melbourne, the Blues would require a really unlucky collection of occasions to overlook the highest eight from right here. That’d embody dropping each of their remaining matches, to allow them to merely safe their spot with another victory. But as we’ve been saying for months now, you’re fairly near locked in with 12 and a half wins anyway – perhaps it comes right down to proportion with the Swans and/or Cats, perhaps sufficient groups attain 13-plus wins… we simply suppose there are sufficient losses to go round that the Blues gained’t be caught now. And, extra to the purpose, they’re adequate to beat the Suns and/or Giants anyway. There’s even a world the place they sneak into the highest 4, but it surely’d require Hawthorn to upset Melbourne for them first.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, end fifth at 14-8-1, host Adelaide in an elimination last
6. ST KILDA (12-9, 107%)
To play: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, Brisbane Lions on the Gabba
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice (however in all probability protected with one win too)
Best case: Finish fifth by going 2-0 AND Carlton loses as soon as
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping twice whereas three of the Swans/Bulldogs/Bombers/Cats/Crows attain 12+ wins with a adequate proportion
Analysis: We stated final week they wanted to win twice extra, and the video games had been about to get progressively tougher. So the Saints did what they needed to do and gained the best of the three. And now it’s truly fairly easy. One extra win, almost certainly over the Cats, would successfully clinch their spot in September. If they lose their subsequent two, it’s more likely to come right down to proportion… and theirs isn’t nice, particularly as a result of on this situation, they’d be dropping extra over the following fortnight. It’s clearly a nervy time for St Kilda followers however in a manner, you may’t ask for rather more – your workforce controls its destiny. Win and in.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 0-2, end tenth at 12-11 (out on proportion)
7. SYDNEY SWANS (11-9-1, 112.1%)
To play: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Melbourne on the SCG
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice
Best case: Finish fifth by going 2-0 AND Carlton and St Kilda lose at the very least as soon as (should additionally achieve proportion on Blues)
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping twice OR dropping as soon as AND three of the Cats/Dogs/Saints/Bombers/Giants attain 12.5+ wins (seemingly Geelong/GWS profitable twice and St Kilda profitable as soon as)
Analysis: Percentage isn’t speculated to matter when you’ve had a draw; it might nonetheless determine Sydney’s destiny. Saturday’s win has given them a niche on the chasing pack however with two very powerful video games remaining, they’re actually not protected but. Two extra wins will certainly get them there, and doubtless into a house elimination last. One extra win and it’s going to be fascinating – they’re in all probability protected on 12 and a half, as a result of there are sufficient video games between the groups round/beneath them (Saints-Cats, Dogs-Cats, Bombers-Giants) that it’s unlikely three of the Cats, Dogs, Saints, Bombers and Giants would be capable of go them. But, like with Carlton (who’re already on 12 and a half), it’s not but sure. The challenge then for the Swans may very well be proportion vs Geelong – the way in which we see issues taking part in out, a Grand Final rematch looms in an elimination last, and it could decide internet hosting rights. Though perhaps they’d get pleasure from one other shot on the Cats on the MCG?
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, end seventh at 12-10-1 (on proportion), away to Geelong in an elimination last
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-10, 108.5%)
To play: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice (wouldn’t be 100% sure to make it, however extraordinarily seemingly)
Best case: Finish fifth by going 2-0 AND Carlton loses twice AND St Kilda loses at the very least as soon as
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping twice OR going 1-1 whereas three of the Saints/Swans/Giants/Bombers/Cats/Crows attain 12+ wins with a adequate proportion
Analysis: Oh no. Our confidence within the Dogs taking part in finals was at all times primarily based on the belief they’d financial institution wins within the last rounds, as a result of they had been taking part in two of the underside three groups. Except, identical to in 2021, they’ve fallen sufferer to a Hawthorn upset in Launceston. Now, they overcame it two years in the past, nonetheless making a Grand Final. But now they’re in a battle simply to make the eight. If they win their final two video games, they’ll get there, however as we’ve been saying for a when you don’t need to head into the ultimate spherical needing to beat Geelong in Geelong. Especially because the Dogs have seemingly misplaced each sport towards the Cats relationship again to the bicentennial. They might sneak into the eight with 12 wins if every thing else goes proper, however it might come right down to proportion. They ought to beat the Saints, Bombers and Giants in that situation, helped by their sport towards but when Adelaide beats Sydney subsequent weekend and joins the occasion, then issues between them, the Saints and the Giants – and Adelaide might be part of the race too in the event that they beat Sydney subsequent weekend. Good factor the Dogs get the Eagles subsequent week then; they completely have to attempt to thrash them to construct proportion. Based on our predictions, it might determine their season.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, end ninth at 12-11 (out on proportion)
9. ESSENDON (11-10, 99.1%)
To play: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Collingwood on the MCG
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice (wouldn’t be 100% sure to make it, however extraordinarily seemingly)
Best case: Finish fifth by going 2-0 AND Carlton, St Kilda lose twice AND Sydney, Western Bulldogs lose as soon as
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping twice OR dropping as soon as and dropping a proportion combat on 12 wins
Analysis: Beating the underside two by 10 factors doesn’t precisely fill us with confidence, however the Bombers’ season is at the very least alive. They’re in all probability going to wish to win their final two to play finals (and so they’ll be underdogs in each) as a result of they’re impossible to win a tie on 12 wins. They’re a long-shot at this level, however being within the combine (and having a profitable file!) this deep into the season continues to be above what virtually everyone anticipated in Brad Scott’s first yr.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 0-2, end twelfth at 11-12
10. GWS GIANTS (11-10, 98.6%)
To play: Essendon at Giants Stadium, Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice (wouldn’t be 100% sure to make it, however extraordinarily seemingly)
Best case: Finish fifth by going 2-0 AND St Kilda loses twice AND Carlton loses in Round 23 AND Sydney, Western Bulldogs lose as soon as
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping twice OR dropping as soon as and dropping a proportion combat on 12 wins
Analysis: We knew the final three weeks had been going to be powerful for the Giants, and an comprehensible however disappointingly large loss to Port Adelaide has made the duty even more durable. But they will actually nonetheless make the eight, particularly in the event that they win their final two – they’ll be favoured towards the Bombers at residence, and maybe they’ll get a Blues facet in Round 24 that truly isn’t taking part in for something (as they may already be locked into fifth). Even if it’s a stay sport for Carlton, it’s nonetheless winnable for Adam Kingsley’s males. If they get caught on 12 wins we suspect they’re in hassle; a yr of principally shut wins has meant their proportion isn’t superb. Maybe everybody falls over round them and so they stumble into eighth – a win for Sydney over Adelaide would actually assist them, and Geelong actually isn’t a positive factor to go 2-0 as we’re tipping. To put it a bit less complicated – subsequent week is an elimination last. Win that and we’ll see the place they sit.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, end eleventh at 12-11 (out on proportion)
11. GEELONG (10-10-1, 117.5%)
To play: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice (wouldn’t be 100% sure to make it, however extraordinarily seemingly)
Best case: Finish fifth by going 2-0 AND Carlton loses twice AND Sydney loses at the very least as soon as AND St Kilda loses in Round 24 AND the GWS vs Essendon winner loses in Round 24
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping as soon as (might mathematically make it with 11 wins and a draw however extremely unlikely)
Analysis: They’ve used up their 9 lives. (Or, on this case, 10 and a half.) One extra loss will successfully finish Geelong’s season, after permitting Collingwood to run excessive of them on Friday night time. However it’s value declaring different outcomes had been fairly good for them this weekend. Their sturdy proportion holds them in good stead vs Sydney above them, and in the event that they beat each the Saints and Bulldogs, they nonetheless look fairly more likely to make the eight with 12 and a half wins. They can catch the Saints, and the Dogs’ loss to Hawthorn means it’s now trying seemingly Round 24 shall be an elimination last. But, once more – they’ve to truly win. And dropping three of their final 4 isn’t precisely the kind of kind they introduced into final yr’s finals collection.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, end sixth at 12-10-1 (on proportion), host Sydney in an elimination last
12. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-11, 115.8%)
To play: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval, West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Easiest path to high eight: Win twice AND the Saints lose twice AND the Bulldogs, Giants and Bombers lose at the very least as soon as
Best case: Finish seventh by going 2-0 AND Sydney loses in Round 24 AND Geelong beats Western Bulldogs however loses to St Kilda AND GWS vs Essendon winner loses in Round 24
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping as soon as
Analysis: Despite falling agonisingly brief towards Brisbane, the Crows’ season is alive – principally due to Hawthorn. While there are different pathways for Matthew Nicks’ males to sneak into the eight on 12 wins, the way in which we’re predicting issues to fall, they’ll inch previous the Bulldogs (and Saints, Giants and Bombers) for eighth primarily based on proportion. They nonetheless want outcomes to go their manner; whoever wins the Giants-Bombers sport subsequent week must lose in Round 24, for instance. And a slip-up towards the Swans subsequent week would finish their season, as a result of 11 and a half wins is now the minimal to make the eight. But win that sport, and with a final-round proportion buffet on supply towards the Eagles, they’re going to win any tie on 12 wins. It’s a slim probability of sneaking into September, however we just like the probabilities of the dominoes falling the precise manner.
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, end eighth at 12-11 (in on proportion), away to Carlton in an elimination last
13. RICHMOND (September 11-1, 93.1%)
To play: North Melbourne on the MCG, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
‘Easiest’ path to high eight: Win twice by large margins AND Sydney loses twice by large margins AND the Western Bulldogs lose twice AND GWS vs Essendon is a draw AND Adelaide, GWS and Essendon lose in Round 24
Best case: Finish eighth (see above situation, and there could also be others simply as advanced)
Worst case: Miss finals by dropping as soon as, or any of the above necessities don’t occur
Analysis: Look, they’re completed. The absolute minimal to make the eight now’s 11 and a half wins – the Tigers can get there, however have a horrible proportion, and so would wish huge margins of their favour in each their video games and different groups’ video games. They additionally would wish a GWS-Essendon draw (as a result of in any other case considered one of them reaches 12 wins and locks them out).
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, end thirteenth at 10-12-1
While seemingly nonetheless mathematically alive, being two wins out of the eight with two rounds left, Gold Coast was eradicated on Saturday afternoon by way of their loss to Sydney together with Essendon’s win over North Melbourne.
At that time the Suns had been on 9 wins, unable to catch any of the six groups on 11 and a half or extra. The Bulldogs, Saints, Giants and Bombers had been all on 11 wins with the Cats on 10 and a half.
The Saints/Cats and Giants/Bombers video games in Round 23, plus Bulldogs/Cats in Round 24, subsequently assured sufficient groups would attain at the very least 11 and a half wins – regardless of which ends came about in these video games, even attracts.
Gold Coast, Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast can not play finals.
Originally printed as AFL finals equation for all 13 contenders with solely 2 rounds left
Source: www.news.com.au
