Could Essendon be on monitor for extra September heartache?
The Bombers’ sport model has alarm bells ringing for stats specialists, however the good news is that they may very well be setting themselves up for long-term success – if they will evolve on the run.
And there’s a clear template for Brad Scott to observe.
Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne says Essendon’s profile this 12 months seems to be so much like Richmond’s from 2013-2016, when the Tigers made the finals in three successive seasons solely to be bundled out within the first week every time.
That Richmond staff ranked second within the competitors for uncontested marks – Essendon is first this 12 months – however fifteenth for midfield intercepts (the Bombers are 18th), fifteenth for conceding inside-50s (seventeenth) and fifteenth for defending opposition ball motion (18th).
WATCH A NEW EPISODE OF PURE FOOTY ABOVE
“I think the way they (the Bombers) are playing is definitely not a sustainable brand in terms of being able to get to preliminary final weekend, but I don’t think they’re in a position to worry about getting to a preliminary final in 2023,” Hoyne mentioned on a brand new episode of Pure Footy.
“Given where they’ve been at the last four, five or six years, it’s all about stability and resetting. They’ve got a lot of young, exciting talent to be able to work with moving forward, so I think the fact they are eight and six is a huge tick for Brad Scott.
“The concern for me is at the end of this year, you’ve reset and you’ve had a reasonably successful year, but launching forward to get to preliminary final weekend, this profile needs to change.”
The optimistic spin on the comparability is the Tigers had been in a position to change their sport model in 2017 – and went on to win three of the following 4 premierships.
“It’s a poor defensive profile, it’s built off the back of uncontested footy and uncontested marks,” Hoyne mentioned.
“And we saw Richmond at the end of 2016 turfed that profile in the bin and came up with a more chaotic, aggressive, high-turnover brand of footy, and the success was there for everyone to see.”
Also on this week’s episode, King and Hoyne reveal Rory Lobb’s worrying rankings, which groups will profit essentially the most from gamers coming back from harm and two champions who went again to the longer term in spherical 13.
Originally revealed as Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the massive traits forward of spherical 14
Source: www.news.com.au
