2023 Brownlow odds update: Who’s favourite after Nick Daicos’ injury?

Daicos was the clear $1.55-$1.70 betting favorite for the Brownlow earlier than reportedly struggling a hairline fracture in his proper knee that may see him miss roughly six weeks.

Daicos the Younger has now slipped all the way in which again to $6 behind famous person Marcus Bontempelli ($2.10) and famous person Christian Petracca ($2.75) in AFL Brownlow betting markets.

Pies followers shall be hoping that with the pre-finals bye and the perfect situation of successful their qualifying closing to make the prelims that Daicos solely misses 4 video games.

HAS DAICOS DONE ENOUGH?

But the query for punters is whether or not or not Daicos banked sufficient factors to nonetheless win the Brownlow in solely his second yr, a season the place he’s averaged 32.6 disposals a sport, with spherical 21’s 5 touches being the one time all season he’s dropped beneath 25.

The reply is: unlikely.

Despite potential 3-vote video games in three or 4 of the primary six rounds, then one other string of 3-vote outings in a purple patch throughout rounds 16-18, most predictor fashions have Daicos across the 30 vote mark, which, whereas spectacular, isn’t fairly more likely to be sufficient when the likes of the Bont and Chef Trac are searching him.

Only twice up to now eight years have scores of 30 or much less received the Brownlow (Patrick Cripps final yr with 29 and Tom Mitchell 2018 triumph with 28), with 31+ wanted to snag a Chaz.

Across a mid-season stretch the place he cooled off after his exceptionally quick begin, Daicos is more likely to decide up votes recurrently, however with the previous few weeks – and clearly spherical 21’s injury-affected outing – all seeing the Son of the Macedonian Marvel having a restricted impression, the door has been left broad open.

With each Bontempelli and Petracca so shut – each doubtless inside 2-3 votes – and with three video games nonetheless to come back, it makes it unlikely for Daicos to carry onto his lead.

COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE BONT 

Bontempelli had a transparent best-on-ground in opposition to Richmond on Friday and has leapt into favouritism with the Bulldogs having a presumably simpler schedule during the last three weeks of season in dealing with Hawthorn (in Tasmania), West Coast (at Marvel) and Geelong (at GMHBA).

The Bulldogs captain additionally has a historical past of huge scores and Brownlow votes in opposition to these three groups, with 3-vote video games in opposition to every over the previous three seasons.

For his profession he additionally averages virtually 23 disposals a sport in opposition to Hawthorn (with three Brownlow votes), 24.6 in opposition to West Coast (12 Brownlow votes) and slightly below 22 touches a sport in opposition to the Cats (with 5 whole Brownlow votes as effectively).

If Bont is inside 1-6 votes of Daicos in the mean time (as most do), he stands an excellent likelihood of catching the injured Magpie.

CHEF TRAC IS COOKING

Petracca, in the meantime, is rated to be inside 2-7 votes of the youthful Daicos, and has Carlton, Hawthorn and Sydney on his slate to complete the season.

Against the Blues, Petracca tops 23 disposals and has one 3-vote sport – his solely sport in opposition to the Blues the place he’s notched Charlie nods in years prior, however who he additionally ripped off 32 disposals and a aim in opposition to in spherical 12 this yr in a finest on floor efficiency.

His common of twenty-two disposals in opposition to the Hawks and Sydney can be a priority, as is the actual fact he solely has a single Brownlow-scoring sport with 2 votes in opposition to the Hawks (in 2020) and none in opposition to Sydney.

Again, nevertheless, Petracca had 33 disposals, 9 inside 50s and 6 clearances in opposition to Sydney in spherical three, in addition to 30 touches with 9 inside 50s and 6 clearance in spherical 9 in opposition to the Hawks.

So if Petracca can replicate his current type in opposition to all three groups, he might eat into Daicos’ lead considerably and are available from the clouds to grab the medal.

BUTTERY OUTSIDERS 

As for different names exterior the highest 3, the almost certainly to intrude from nowhere may very well be Port Adelaide star Zak Butters who was wonderful throughout Port Adelaide’s membership report 13-game win streak throughout the center of the season. Butters has averaged over 26 disposals a sport and topped 30 on seven events.

There’s additionally Richmond midfielder Tim Taranto who had a blistering begin to the yr earlier than trailing off along with his crew, or Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson who has vacillated between stable and spectacular all yr.

After 4 straight losses for Port, if the Power flip round their type of their closing three matches in opposition to GWS, Fremantle and Richmond, whereas Butters closes out the season robust, he’s nonetheless price a glance.

WHO WINS?

Amazingly, the complete Brownlow may very well be swung by younger Hawk Finn Maginness, who restricted Daicos to these 5 disposals final spherical, and will face up in opposition to each Bontempelli and Petracca within the subsequent two weeks.

But Bont’s type all yr has been distinctive – regardless of how good Petracca has been with out Clayton Oliver – and he most likely advantages essentially the most when it comes to Brownlow votes with Daicos sidelined.

BEST BET:

Marcus Bontempelli

BEST OUTSIDER:

Zak Butters

BEST BROWNLOW MEDAL ODDS – AUGUST 7

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[all odds as of August 7]

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Originally revealed as 2023 Brownlow odds replace: Who’s favorite after Nick Daicos’ harm?