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Howard Marks is without doubt one of the world’s best traders.
He’s so influential Warren Buffett says every time Marks writes something, he stops what he’s doing and reads it instantly.
Late final 12 months Marks wrote a few main “sea change” he believes will alter the whole lot.
“In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.”
That sea change is what we’ve skilled this 12 months: sustained increased rates of interest. Marks argues that the previous 40 years of falling rates of interest have offered traders with a beautiful wind of their sails. And, as a consequence, many individuals nonetheless imagine rates of interest of two per cent are regular. They will not be.
Inflation has put an finish to our clean crusing. Rising rates of interest imply we’ll quickly be shifting into way more treacherous waters.
So, what does all of this imply for you? Well, you have to perceive that the financial winds are actually blowing in opposition to you (and all of us). So let’s deal with you and the place your ship is heading.