WASHINGTON – US intelligence expects the diminished tempo in combating in Ukraine to proceed within the subsequent a number of months and sees no proof of a diminished Ukrainian will to withstand, regardless of assaults on its energy grid and different vital winter infrastructure, the Director of National Intelligence mentioned on Saturday.
“We’re seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict … and we expect that’s likely to be what we see in the coming months,” Avril Haines instructed the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California.
She mentioned each the Ukrainian and Russian militaries could be trying to attempt to refit and resupply to arrange for a counter-offensive after the winter, however there was a query as to what that might seem like, and added:
“We actually have a fair amount of skepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that. I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe.”
Asked in regards to the results of Russian assaults on Ukraine’s energy grid and different civilian infrastructure, Haines mentioned Moscow’s goal was partly to undermine the need of Ukrainians to withstand, and added: “I think we’re not seeing any evidence of that being undermined right now at this point.”
She mentioned Russia was additionally trying to have an effect on Ukraine’s capability to prosecute battle and added that Kyiv’s economic system had been struggling very badly.
“It can over time, obviously, have an impact. How much of an impact will be dependent on how much they go after, what they’re capable of doing, the resilience of that critical infrastructure, our capacity to help them defend it.”
“Ukraine’s economy is suffering very badly. It’s been devastating, and … obviously taking down the grid will have an impact on that as well.”
Haines mentioned she thought Russian President Vladimir Putin had been shocked that his army had not achieved extra.
“I do think he is becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces in Russia. But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of just how challenged they are … we see shortages of ammunition, for morale, supply issues, logistics, a whole series of concerns that they’re facing.”
Haines mentioned Putin’s political targets in Ukraine didn’t seem to have modified, however US intelligence analysts thought he could also be prepared to reduce his near-term army targets “on a temporary basis with the idea that he might then come back at this issue at a later time.”
She mentioned Russia seemed to be utilizing up its army stockpiles “quite quickly.”
“It’s really pretty extraordinary, and our own sense is that they are not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage,” she mentioned.
“That’s why you see them going to other countries effectively to try to get ammunition … and we’ve indicated that their precision munitions are running out much faster in many respects.”
Haines mentioned the United States had “seen some movement” in provides of munitions from North Korea, “but it’s not been a lot at this stage.”
She mentioned Iran had provided Russia with drones and Moscow was on the lookout for different forms of precision munitions from Tehran, one thing that might be “very concerning in terms of their capacity.” —Reuters
