Collingwood is on observe for its first minor premiership since 2011, however the Magpies’ sport is just not in good form based on the stats gurus.
Close wins and one quirky stat is perhaps making issues look slightly higher than they really are for Craig McRae’s males.
On Saturday evening the Pies claimed a two-point win in a basic over Port Adelaide, however on Champion Data’s anticipated scores it ought to have been a 31-point Power win.
And that displays a weird year-long pattern that has Collingwood ranked No.1 for goalkicking accuracy and the Magpies’ opposition ranked 18th in the identical stat.
Collingwood’s opponents have kicked for objective at 41.7 per accuracy this season, 10 per cent worse than Port Adelaide’s opponents.
“The only thing you can do is force (oponents) into difficult shots. Whether they take them or they miss, that’s just sheer luck,” Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne stated on a brand new episode of Pure Footy.
“Their opposition’s accuracy has beens horrendous, and you know my thoughts about accuracy – eventually at some stage it levels itself out.”
And the Pies might need a deeper difficulty to repair earlier than hitting the finals.
“In the first six weeks no one won the ball back off the opposition between the arcs more than Collingwood … and they were the second-hardest team to turn a possession into a score against. They’re now 11th,” Hoyne stated.
Over the previous six weeks the Magpies rank mid-table on all 4 of Champion Data’s “without the footy” pillars, sitting ninth for midfield intercepts and tenth for defending opposition ball motion.
“If Port had kicked to their expected accuracy on Saturday night, they should have scored almost 95 points in wet and slippery conditions,” Hoyne stated.
“In 2022 everyone was questioning, ‘How can Collingwood compete in finals when they’re 18th for contested possessions … that defensive profile was the reason they came within a whisker of knocking off the team that won the flag by 14 goals. That was absolutely rock solid. It’s not rock solid at the moment. If they have that (profile) for the next nine weeks, they’re not holding up the cup in September.”
Also on this week’s episode, why the “wicked switch is dead”, the shocking stat on Patrick Cripps’ ball use and why Christian Petracca’s new position may very well be the teaching transfer of the season.
Originally printed as Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the large traits forward of spherical 20
Source: www.news.com.au
